od Captain Crunch » sob 07. črc 2018 12:52
Tyler Dellow (The Athletic) píše:Fun fact for everyone in Canada sick of The Athletic‘s coverage of parade preparations in Toronto: over the past two seasons – or since the Maple Leafs became a hockey team that was actively trying to win games again – Toronto scored 2.94 5-on-5 GF/60 with the much-maligned Tyler Bozak on the ice.
During that same time period, the Islanders scored, let’s see… 2.96 5-on-5 GF/60 with Toronto legend John Tavares on the ice. So, every 50 hours of 5-on-5 ice time, the Islanders would get an extra goal. Considering that Tavares has played just under 39 hours of 5-on-5 ice time over the past two years, that seems like an exceedingly small difference for which the Maple Leafs have paid a small fortune.
If you widen the window and look at their careers as a whole, the gap opens up. A bit. Bozak’s been on the ice for 2.65 GF/60 at 5-on-5 and Tavares has been on the ice for 2.82 GF/60. So if Tavares is playing twenty hours of 5-on-5 a year, that’s an extra three goals. Three. It really doesn’t seem like much.
As I’m referencing goal data here and the spreads aren’t exactly intuitive, a little context is probably in order. Over the past two years, no forward playing at least 1,200 5-on-5 minutes was on the ice for goals at a greater rate than Steven Stamkos. The Lightning have scored 3.76 GF/60 with him on the ice. The prize for offensive ineptitude goes to Kyle Clifford, whose Kings have scored just 1.22 GF/60 with him on the ice over the past two years. (Related: abolish fourth lines.)
To fill in the blanks a little more, here are the percentiles for GF/60 for the 307 forwards to play at least 1,200 5-on-5 minutes over the past two years.
90th percentile: 3.01 GF/60
80th percentile: 2.82 GF/60
70th percentile: 2.68 GF/60
60th percentile: 2.57 GF/60
50th percentile: 2.44 GF/60
40th percentile: 2.28 GF/60
30th percentile: 2.16 GF/60
20th percentile: 2.01 GF/60
10th percentile: 1.80 GF/60
If you look at this closely, you can see how the players who are able to generate GF/60 above the 90th percentile are just generating great gobs of value. The Oilers have scored 3.57 GF/60 over the past two years with Connor McDavid on the ice, 0.56 GF/60 above the 90th percentile. It’s like the difference between the 90th percentile and the 40th percentile. Bozak’s numbers from the past two years are, obviously, very good looking.
When you look a little more closely at Bozak’s data from the past two years, he doesn’t really seem like he was the guy driving the success that the Maple Leafs enjoyed when he was on the ice. He’s basically had three linemates with whom he’s played any significant amount of time.
James van Riemsdyk: 85.2 per cent of Bozak’s 5-on-5 time, 9.2 per cent on-ice shooting percentage, 3.05 GF/60
Mitch Marner: 62.4 per cent of Bozak’s 5-on-5 time, 9.7 per cent on-ice shooting percentage, 3.15 GF/60
Connor Brown: 27.0 per cent of Bozak’s 5-on-5 time, 8.1 per cent on-ice shooting percentage, 2.67 GF/60
Putting it another way, here’s what Bozak’s numbers have looked like when he’s not on the ice with those three players.
van Riemsdyk: 14.8 per cent of Bozak’s 5-on-5 time, 8.8 per cent on-ice shooting percentage, 2.34 GF/60
Marner: 37.6 per cent of Bozak’s 5-on-5 time, 8.2 per cent on-ice shooting percentage, 2.61 GF/60
Brown: 73.0 per cent of Bozak’s 5-on-5 time, 9.5 per cent on-ice shooting percentage, 3.04 GF/60
Well above the 90th percentile for GF/60 when he was on the ice with Marner, just above the 60th percentile for GF/60 when Marner wasn’t on the ice with him.
Only one other Leafs forward (William Nylander) even played four per cent of Bozak’s ice time and he barely cleared the four per cent mark. So looking at this, you can start to see how there’s separation between Tavares and Bozak in the past two years, even if their GF/60 is similar. Van Riemsdyk was nearly a constant on Bozak’s left side but when he wasn’t with van Riemsdyk, the Maple Leafs struggled to score with Bozak on the ice. On the right side, there’s a massive difference between Bozak with Marner and Bozak with Brown. When you look at it this way, it looks a little more like Marner (in particular) and JvR were the drivers in terms of goals. Which kind of makes you wonder what the Blues are paying for but that’s St. Louis’ problem, not Toronto’s.
If you go back to the wider picture, you recall that there kind of used to be a famous perception that Bozak was basically a product of Phil Kessel. In the years before Kessel was traded, Bozak played an inordinate amount of his time with Kessel. Almost 84 per cent of Bozak’s 5-on-5 time on ice was spent with Kessel. With Kessel and Bozak on the ice, the Maple Leafs scored 2.71 GF/60 – not earth shattering but not terrible. In the nearly 900 minutes that Bozak spent apart from Kessel, the Maple Leafs scored 2.12 GF/60. That’s pretty terrible. Intriguingly, given what’s happened in the past two years, the Maple Leafs scored a lot with Bozak and van Riemsdyk on the ice (3.25 GF/60) and very little with Bozak on the ice without van Riemsdyk (1.66 GF/60).
Toto som spomínal po podpise v diskusii. Nehovoriac o tom, že vo veku 32 rokov pôjde jeho výkonnostná krivka len smerom dole. Pred príchodom Babcocka bol
overused, pričom dosahoval čísla na hranici
4th linerov. Po príchode Babcocka začal vykazovať dobré čísla ako napr. 1.74 pts/60, 52.36%
shot attempts... Po rokoch mu klesla FO%, pričom najmä prvú polovicu sezóny bolo vidieť, že s novými, striktnejšími, pravidlami ohľadom vhadzovaní sa trápi - minulú sezónu mal
career-best 56.7%, predtým 56.4%, v polovici tejto sezóny mal mierne nad 50%, nakoniec ale sezónu skončil s 53.6%. V Decembri proti Rangers prehral 15 z 21 FO (treba uviesť, že viacerí hráči s novými pravidlami zaznamenali pokles v úspešnosti). S nižšou úspešnosťou mu automaticky poklesla aj rola/využitie v tíme. Nie je to žiadna náhoda. Babcock využíva
backup G na zaznamenávanie FO štatistík. Napr. Carlyle využíval Bozaka na FO pri PK, kde po vyhratom vhadzovaní korčuľoval na striedačku.
Babcock limitoval jeho
usage - 65.2 oZS%, resp. 34.8 dZS%. Pri 5-on-5 mal 30 pts a to nastupoval s van Riemsdykom, ktorý mal 25 ES goals. V ideálnom svete by dostal kontrakt na 1 sezónu v hodnote 3 mil. USD.
Teraz je na vás, či ho zvládnete podobne "schovať" v zostave a poskytnúť mu akési krytie aby bol platný.
[quote="Tyler Dellow (The Athletic)"]Fun fact for everyone in Canada sick of The Athletic‘s coverage of parade preparations in Toronto: over the past two seasons – or since the Maple Leafs became a hockey team that was actively trying to win games again – Toronto scored 2.94 5-on-5 GF/60 with the much-maligned Tyler Bozak on the ice.
During that same time period, the Islanders scored, let’s see… 2.96 5-on-5 GF/60 with Toronto legend John Tavares on the ice. So, every 50 hours of 5-on-5 ice time, the Islanders would get an extra goal. Considering that Tavares has played just under 39 hours of 5-on-5 ice time over the past two years, that seems like an exceedingly small difference for which the Maple Leafs have paid a small fortune.
If you widen the window and look at their careers as a whole, the gap opens up. A bit. Bozak’s been on the ice for 2.65 GF/60 at 5-on-5 and Tavares has been on the ice for 2.82 GF/60. So if Tavares is playing twenty hours of 5-on-5 a year, that’s an extra three goals. Three. It really doesn’t seem like much.
As I’m referencing goal data here and the spreads aren’t exactly intuitive, a little context is probably in order. Over the past two years, no forward playing at least 1,200 5-on-5 minutes was on the ice for goals at a greater rate than Steven Stamkos. The Lightning have scored 3.76 GF/60 with him on the ice. The prize for offensive ineptitude goes to Kyle Clifford, whose Kings have scored just 1.22 GF/60 with him on the ice over the past two years. (Related: abolish fourth lines.)
To fill in the blanks a little more, here are the percentiles for GF/60 for the 307 forwards to play at least 1,200 5-on-5 minutes over the past two years.
90th percentile: 3.01 GF/60
80th percentile: 2.82 GF/60
70th percentile: 2.68 GF/60
60th percentile: 2.57 GF/60
50th percentile: 2.44 GF/60
40th percentile: 2.28 GF/60
30th percentile: 2.16 GF/60
20th percentile: 2.01 GF/60
10th percentile: 1.80 GF/60
If you look at this closely, you can see how the players who are able to generate GF/60 above the 90th percentile are just generating great gobs of value. The Oilers have scored 3.57 GF/60 over the past two years with Connor McDavid on the ice, 0.56 GF/60 above the 90th percentile. It’s like the difference between the 90th percentile and the 40th percentile. Bozak’s numbers from the past two years are, obviously, very good looking.
When you look a little more closely at Bozak’s data from the past two years, he doesn’t really seem like he was the guy driving the success that the Maple Leafs enjoyed when he was on the ice. He’s basically had three linemates with whom he’s played any significant amount of time.
James van Riemsdyk: 85.2 per cent of Bozak’s 5-on-5 time, 9.2 per cent on-ice shooting percentage, 3.05 GF/60
Mitch Marner: 62.4 per cent of Bozak’s 5-on-5 time, 9.7 per cent on-ice shooting percentage, 3.15 GF/60
Connor Brown: 27.0 per cent of Bozak’s 5-on-5 time, 8.1 per cent on-ice shooting percentage, 2.67 GF/60
Putting it another way, here’s what Bozak’s numbers have looked like when he’s not on the ice with those three players.
van Riemsdyk: 14.8 per cent of Bozak’s 5-on-5 time, 8.8 per cent on-ice shooting percentage, 2.34 GF/60
Marner: 37.6 per cent of Bozak’s 5-on-5 time, 8.2 per cent on-ice shooting percentage, 2.61 GF/60
Brown: 73.0 per cent of Bozak’s 5-on-5 time, 9.5 per cent on-ice shooting percentage, 3.04 GF/60
Well above the 90th percentile for GF/60 when he was on the ice with Marner, just above the 60th percentile for GF/60 when Marner wasn’t on the ice with him.
Only one other Leafs forward (William Nylander) even played four per cent of Bozak’s ice time and he barely cleared the four per cent mark. So looking at this, you can start to see how there’s separation between Tavares and Bozak in the past two years, even if their GF/60 is similar. Van Riemsdyk was nearly a constant on Bozak’s left side but when he wasn’t with van Riemsdyk, the Maple Leafs struggled to score with Bozak on the ice. On the right side, there’s a massive difference between Bozak with Marner and Bozak with Brown. When you look at it this way, it looks a little more like Marner (in particular) and JvR were the drivers in terms of goals. Which kind of makes you wonder what the Blues are paying for but that’s St. Louis’ problem, not Toronto’s.
If you go back to the wider picture, you recall that there kind of used to be a famous perception that Bozak was basically a product of Phil Kessel. In the years before Kessel was traded, Bozak played an inordinate amount of his time with Kessel. Almost 84 per cent of Bozak’s 5-on-5 time on ice was spent with Kessel. With Kessel and Bozak on the ice, the Maple Leafs scored 2.71 GF/60 – not earth shattering but not terrible. In the nearly 900 minutes that Bozak spent apart from Kessel, the Maple Leafs scored 2.12 GF/60. That’s pretty terrible. Intriguingly, given what’s happened in the past two years, the Maple Leafs scored a lot with Bozak and van Riemsdyk on the ice (3.25 GF/60) and very little with Bozak on the ice without van Riemsdyk (1.66 GF/60).[/quote]
Toto som spomínal po podpise v diskusii. Nehovoriac o tom, že vo veku 32 rokov pôjde jeho výkonnostná krivka len smerom dole. Pred príchodom Babcocka bol [i]overused[/i], pričom dosahoval čísla na hranici [i]4th linerov[/i]. Po príchode Babcocka začal vykazovať dobré čísla ako napr. 1.74 pts/60, 52.36% [i]shot attempts[/i]... Po rokoch mu klesla FO%, pričom najmä prvú polovicu sezóny bolo vidieť, že s novými, striktnejšími, pravidlami ohľadom vhadzovaní sa trápi - minulú sezónu mal [i]career-best[/i] 56.7%, predtým 56.4%, v polovici tejto sezóny mal mierne nad 50%, nakoniec ale sezónu skončil s 53.6%. V Decembri proti Rangers prehral 15 z 21 FO (treba uviesť, že viacerí hráči s novými pravidlami zaznamenali pokles v úspešnosti). S nižšou úspešnosťou mu automaticky poklesla aj rola/využitie v tíme. Nie je to žiadna náhoda. Babcock využíva [i]backup[/i] G na zaznamenávanie FO štatistík. Napr. Carlyle využíval Bozaka na FO pri PK, kde po vyhratom vhadzovaní korčuľoval na striedačku.
Babcock limitoval jeho [i]usage[/i] - 65.2 oZS%, resp. 34.8 dZS%. Pri 5-on-5 mal 30 pts a to nastupoval s van Riemsdykom, ktorý mal 25 ES goals. V ideálnom svete by dostal kontrakt na 1 sezónu v hodnote 3 mil. USD.
Teraz je na vás, či ho zvládnete podobne "schovať" v zostave a poskytnúť mu akési krytie aby bol platný.