Diskuze o jednotlivých týmech nejkvalitnější hokejové ligy na světě.
Jasně, určitě dají mladého top forwarda za beka, který může být do Vánoc mimo. Právě proto jsem nasraný, protože prostě z ničeho nic nemáme žádnou trade value. Fowlera chcou bohužel podepsat, trejd Theodora/Montoura smysl moc nedává, jelikož jsou chráněni a Manson nepřichází v úvahu snad.MinonkySK píše:Tak mozno to bude za Druina a nakoniec budes vyteseny
jako o BB8? pokud hledate hrace do treti lajny, proc ne. ale za druhy kolotomasinho » včera, , 15:47 píše:Podle Friedmana máme regulérné zájem o Bennetta. Proč ne, asi bych bral, potenciál má podle mě pořád hodně velký, letos zklamání, ale pořád je hodně mladý. Není to úplně vysněná posila (say hello tou Drouin), ale asi bych byl rád, kdyby přišel.
Ne, to fakt ne. Samozřejmě Sam Bennett. Hráče na operační stůl a masérské stoly neptořebujeme.megaton píše:jako o BB8? pokud hledate hrace do treti lajny, proc ne. ale za druhy kolo
Selly8 píše:Aspon si nemusis menit avatar
Cam Fowler prediction: he re-signs in Anaheim for something around eight years and a $6.5 million average. When he slipped to 12th in the 2010 draft, one of the reasons was that he didn’t interview well. He admitted at the time he was uncomfortable with the process. As an awkward 19-year-old myself, I was sympathetic. Have always wanted to see him do well to overcome that, and he’s earned it.
Don’t think the Ducks are in on Evander Kane. I’d heard that, and have seen it reported, but the Intel suggests otherwise. As half the league swoops around Sami Vatanen, the Ducks are conscious of cap concerns. I’m not sure they wish to take a ton of salary back. Certainly, from a purely hockey point of view, a Vatanen-Jonathan Drouin deal makes sense, but not sure the Ducks can fit a new deal for the talented forward. They’ve got lots of options, tough.
Vzhľadom na to, že materiály theathletic.com sú len pre subscriberov, tak tu máš zvyšok artiklu.tomasinho píše:http://hokejforum.com/viewtopic.php?f=4 ... 84#p424073
theathletic.com píše:Dellow: Why the Leafs should sidestep any deal for Ducks defenceman Sami Vatanen
by Tyler Dellow, Fri, June 9th
TSN’s Insider Trading had a segment the other day in which they mentioned Toronto’s interest in Anaheim defenceman Sami Vatanen. This isn’t particularly surprising — it was speculated that the Maple Leafs were looking at defencemen when general manager Lou Lamoriello and head coach Mike Babcock popped up in Nashville during the Western Conference final between the Nashville Predators and Ducks.
It’s no secret that the Leafs need to improve the right side of their defence and Vatanen plays on the right side. Anaheim also needs to shed some guys for the expansion draft.
It makes sense, right?
The problem with that line of thinking is this: Vatanen is a good third pairing guy/power-play specialist. Toronto had one of the best power plays in the league but could desperately use some help on the right side when 5-on-5. However, a good third pairing guy (particularly one who costs $4.875-million per season) who’s good on the power play isn’t what the Leafs need.
Vatanen’s 5-on-5 career in Anaheim is kind of a story of two halves. In 2013-15, the Ducks were better in possession and goals when he was on the ice. In the past two seasons, things haven’t been very good.
I think it’s important to look at things from a raw perspective as well, to get a sense of whether the relative results are changing because of the player or because of how the team is doing when he’s on the bench.
What’s happened here is that Vatanen’s performance relative to his team has fallen off over the course of his career. He bottomed out last year from a relative possession perspective, before bouncing back this year. His raw numbers have been declining year-over-year as well.
There are a couple of things going on here. First, Vatanen’s role within the team has kind of evolved over the years and you can see this if you look at his partners in each season. In 2013-14, he spent nearly 80 per cent of his 5-on-5 time with either Mark Fistric or Bryan Allen. That’s a third pairing.
In 2014-15, he spent nearly 75 per cent of his time with Clayton Stoner, Bryan Allen, Eric Brewer, Mark Fistric and Colby Robak. Again, this looks like a third pairing defenceman, although he did see his time with Cam Fowler —a top four defenceman — nudge up to 14 per cent.
In 2015-16, he was again around 75 per cent of his time with players who one would think are third pairing defencemen: Clayton Stoner, Simon Despres and Kevin Bieksa. It’s only in this most recent season in which he’s clearly been played with a top four partner, with just over 60 per cent of his time with Cam Fowler, Josh Manson or Hampus Lindholm. Unfortunately, as noted above, his results have been trending downwards as the Ducks have pushed him beyond a third pairing role.
If you look at the last two seasons, you see that Vatanen had terrible possession numbers relative to the team in 2015-16 and that this year, those numbers improved relative to the team. Despite this, his raw possession numbers fell.
How does that work?
This is a point that I make frequently, but a lot of what hockey analytics is, is the organization of information. We can organize the 2015-16 Ducks in the games played by Vatanen into three fairly discrete groups: Vatanen ice time, Lindholm ice time without Vatanen (they played just over 60 minutes together and Lindholm appeared in 69 of Vatanen’s 71 games) and the rest of the ice time, which generally means the Fowler minutes, although he missed some time.
Moving ahead to this season, we see that Lindholm missed some time, which makes using him as the basis for one of the pairs kind of awkward. Instead, I’m going to use the following three groups: Vatanen, Josh Manson without Vatanen (they also played just over 60 minutes together) and other.
This makes the bump in Vatanen’s Corsi% relative to his team this year pretty easy to figure out. Both of the other two groups were down this year. What’s really happened, I think, is that Anaheim’s third pair utterly imploded.
Although the overall drop from Lindholm without Vatanen to Manson without Vatanen is bigger than the drop in the final group, the Manson group this year contains only about 55 per cent Lindholm time whereas the year before, obviously, the Lindholm group contained 100 per cent Lindholm time.
To give you a sense of how valuable that Lindholm time is, I split the No-Vatanen/Manson group this year into time with Lindholm and without Lindholm. With Lindholm, that group outscored the opposition 26-7 with a 52.5 per cent Corsi%. Without Lindholm, that group was outscored 34-23 with a 44.8 per cent Corsi%.
Lindholm’s greatness aside, there’s still nothing here to suggest that Vatanen is anything other than a guy who can fill a spot in the top four who, at best, doesn’t move the needle in a positive way. Also of note in this regard: with Josh Manson, Cam Fowler has had a 52.4 per cent Corsi% over the past two years. With Vatanen, that number drops to 48.5 per cent.
As I’ve mentioned from time-to-time, I have a quick and dirty little quality of competition measure that I call “star percentage.” It’s a pretty straightforward number, simply a measure of the percentage of a player’s time on ice that has been played against the other team’s top forward. It kind of tells a story about Vatanen — he was at 20 per cent in 2013-14, followed by 29.4 percent in 2014-15, 26.2 in 2015-16 and 27.7 in 2016-17.
Twenty per cent is someone who’s being heavily sheltered. The last three years are sort of a bottom end second-pair guy in terms of competition by this metric. He certainly hasn’t played particularly difficult competition to this point in his career. That’s another strike against him when you consider his 5-on-5 results.
One more thing can be added to all of this: in order to get Vatanen, the Leafs would have to win a bidding war. TSN has mentioned that Tampa Bay and New Jersey are also interested in Vatanen. New Jersey, in particular, seems like they might benefit from a player like Vatanen more than Toronto, in that New Jersey’s power play was awful last year.
A player who doesn’t address Toronto’s biggest need, comes with a reasonably large salary and whose acquisition would cost the Leafs draft picks or players doesn’t seem like a good use of resources for Toronto.
In short, Vatanen isn’t what the Leafs need.
Díky za to, hodně zajímavý pohled. Nečekal jsem, že na tom je až tak špatně, i když má za sebou nejhorší sezonu v kariéře zatím. Když si vezmu k tomu to jeho zranění, obávám se, že moc z toho nevytřískáme. Alespoň si v klubu ale cení Mansona, kterého jednoznačně před Vatsem upřednostňují a kterého nechtějí ztratit.Captain Crunch píše:Captain Crunch
Manson je logická voľba pre organizáciu. Za predpokladu, že Bieksa bude: 1) buyoutnutý, 2) waivne jeho No Movement klauzulu, tak schéma 7-3-1 je pomerne jasná. Každopádne verím, že vedenie dostáva ponuky na oboch bekov. Vatanen mal viac all-situation minutes než Manson (21:39 per game vs. 18:37). Hrali zhruba rovnako na PK a pri ES, avšak Vatanen dostával podstatne viac priestoru na PP.tomasinho píše:...
Právě jsem si říkal, že o tom Vatanenovi to je dost bráno jednostranně a dost věcí nebral autor v potaz. Každopádně i tak zajímavé. Jeho postradatelnost stvrzuje i vývoj Montoura, který je vlastně skoro na chlup stejným hráčem jako Vatanen a jeho úlohu v týmu nahradí. Samozřejmě ještě má nedostatky, není na jeho úrovni, ale typově podobný a vykazuje dobrá čísla.Captain Crunch píše:Captain Crunch
Jenže k tomu se jaksi nedostaneme, když teď jsou trejdy zakázány víš? Mezitím může dojít ke 3 variantám.formic99 píše:já furt doufám že zpanikaříte a vezmete od nás ještě nějaký picky a nějakýho hráče do útoku.. Přece jenom furt máme letos ještě jeden pick v druhym, kterej je vysokej a dost vysokej pick i ve třetím kole. Ale podle mě furt lepší dostat něco něž si to vzít free od Vegas
on byl nějakej deadline už?tomasinho píše:Jenže k tomu se jaksi nedostaneme, když teď jsou trejdy zakázány víš? Mezitím může dojít ke 3 variantám.formic99 píše:já furt doufám že zpanikaříte a vezmete od nás ještě nějaký picky a nějakýho hráče do útoku.. Přece jenom furt máme letos ještě jeden pick v druhym, kterej je vysokej a dost vysokej pick i ve třetím kole. Ale podle mě furt lepší dostat něco něž si to vzít free od Vegas
1. Pošleme ho záměrně do Vegas, aby nám nebrali Mansona
2. Pošleme do Vegas něco jiného, aby nebrali Mansona a oni si ho vezmou zadarmo
3. McPhee se zblázní a nechá se ukecat, aby nebral ani jednoho
to je blbý pak no
A proč bych asi jinak tak rozčiloval proboha? Ano, dneska v 9 byl deadline. Teďka je roster freeze a může se jednat jen s Vegas. A trejdy s nima se stejně oznámí až ve středu nebo kdy.formic99 píše:on byl nějakej deadline už?
